ESS and Bias Plots

The figures include plots of the Equitable Skill Statistic (ESS) and the Frequency Bias for the accumulated precipitation forecasts. The model-generated precipitation forecasts were transformed into Yes/No forecasts by determining if the interpolated forecast value at each gauge location exceeded or was less than the pre-specified threshold. The pre-specified precipitation thresholds are 0.01, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 inches.

Statistical Tables

Forecast/observation pairs used to compute the statistics, the ESS and the Bias, are listed for each day in the tabular results. Summary numbers (generated for the entire period) are listed on the bottom of the table.